OTHER WORKING PAPERS

“When Bankers Go to Hail: Insights into Fed-Bank Interactions from Taxi Data”

(2022; with Daniel Bradley, Matthew Gustafson and Jared Williams; accepted by Management Science June 2022)

Abstract: We introduce taxi ridership between the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and large financial institutions headquartered in New York City as a novel proxy for Fed-bank face-to-face interactions. We document a negative relation between past Fed-bank interactions and future stock market returns, particularly on days around the Fed’s public announcements. We also find significantly elevated Fed-bank interactions immediately following the lifting of the FOMC blackout. Our findings suggest that the Fed increases its information gathering via face-to-face interactions when it possesses negative private information about the condition of the economy.

“What Insights Do Taxi Rides Offer into Federal Reserve Leakage?”

(2018; partially superseded by “When Bankers Go to Hail”)

Abstract: How do markets learn about central banks? Employing narrative evidence and futures data, Cieślak, Morse and Vissing-Jørgensen (2018) argue that private, informal channels systematically carry Federal Reserve information to markets around monetary-policy meetings. I complement their work with an analysis of potential channels: New York Fed insiders’ interactions with commercial bankers. Using taxi data, I find highly statistically significant evidence that late-night meetings at the New York Fed and lunchtime offsite interactions increase around FOMC meetings. These results suggest increased opportunities for Federal Reserve information to flow to markets along informal or discreet channels.

SELECTION OF PRESS COVERAGE OF  “WHAT INSIGHTS DO TAXI RIDES OFFER INTO FEDERAL RESERVE LEAKAGE?”

“Taxi Study Finds Increase in Trips Between Fed, Banks Around FOMC Meetings”, The Wall Street Journal
“What taxi data shows about the Fed’s contact with bankers”, Politico
“GPS-Daten von Taxis deuten auf verdächtige Treffen zwischen US-Bankern und Notenbankern hin”, Handelsblatt
“Quand la Fed et les banques sont piégées par leurs trajets en taxi”, Les Echos
“Mining data on cab rides to show how business information flows”, The Economist
“There’s a suspicious burst of taxi rides to and from Wall Street banks and the NY Fed around the time of key Fed Meetings”, Business Insider
“What taxi ride data reveals about the NY Fed and big banks”, Marketplace
“Inside information from the Fed? Follow that cab“, Chicago Booth Review